Supporting AFEX strategy team in development of a theory of change, impact framework and data analysis for evaluating five years of impact. Agri-Logic support was a mixture of impact measurement, capacity building and external verification.
For an international impact investor, Agri-Logic developed a point of view on the potential development impact of investment in fertilizer in Nigeria.
With 34,000,000 hectares of arable land, Nigeria has the potential to be an agricultural powerhouse. Despite this, farmers constantly struggle with low yields and low product quality and the country is still a large importer of food and food products. Current average application rate of fertilizer in Nigeria is estimated at 11 kg/ha while recommended fertilizer application rates are ~130 kg/ha. Increased fertilizer application rate could be of major advantage in improving production quality and quantity, thereby enabling sustained productivity growth. Other commercial opportunities could also be derived along the fertilizer value chain.
Agri-Logic estimated impact based on a representative basket of cassava, maize, and tomatoes; three major crops in Nigeria. A literature review on fertilizer application for these crops provided useful information on impact potential in production quantity and income as a direct result of increased fertilizer use at recommended application rate. Field surveys with farmers and other stakeholders gave an understanding of the reality of fertilizer application and factors affecting its use, prices and availability across the country.
The study provided an overview of the current fertilizer market in Nigeria, as well as its potential impact on yield, livelihoods and food security. The client was provided with an estimated impact on smallholder farmers’ income as well as food self-sufficiency for the population of Nigeria. We also indicated risks and success factors to be monitored in implementation.