African Coffee Investment Review

African Coffee Investment Review

Via its Global Coffee Platform (GCP), the IDH Sustainable Trade Initiative seeks to make a significant impact on the global coffee sector. Africa features heavily in it’s strategy as an under-utilized source of significant new coffee volumes to meet growing demand. Ironically, much of the coffee and sustainability investments over the past 10-15 years have taken place in Latin America and Asia. Africa has just 4% of global certified sustainable supply (against around 10% of total supply), yet the needs for investment in coffee on the continent are arguably greater than elsewhere.

Agri-Logic was asked to conduct in-depth coffee sector studies for 9 African origins: Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. These studies are used to develop the GCP’s African investment strategy, and feed into the establishment of an African Coffee Facility by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Inter-African Coffee Association (IACO). Investment opportunities in each origin are investigated, including modelling of their impact and return on investment at different levels of the value chain.

We developed a dynamic sector model allowing to analyze large volumes of data from different sources. This model is fed by a structured database and allows insight into a sector’s performance compared to user-defined global benchmark origins. The study has been presented at the Africa Coffee Facility inception meeting in Abidjan to a public of regional coffee sector representatives and staff of IACO and the AfDB, as well as during the Global Coffee Platform workshop in Addis Ababa.

African coffee sector investment opportunities – summary (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Angola (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Burundi (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Cameroon (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Cote d’Ivoire (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Ethiopia (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Kenya (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Rwanda (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Tanzania (GCP)
African coffee sector investment opportunities – country report Uganda (GCP)
Impact of Common Code for the Coffee Community

Impact of Common Code for the Coffee Community

In 2009 we were contracted by the 4C Association to conduct an impact assessment of the the implementation of its code of conduct in Vietnam, Uganda and Nicaragua. In 2014, 4C asked to revisit the same farmers in Uganda and Vietnam and conduct a similar study to identify and quantify long-term effects of its programme.

We designed an impact study for this that uses a difference-in-difference approach and relies on Propensity Score Matching to create realistic counter-factual scenarios. This allows us to answer the question: what would have happened to a farmer if s/he had decided not to join the 4C programme? Two experts from Wageningen University and Research provided extensive feedback on the research design and interpretation of results.

Farmers that are part of a 4C verified supply chain have more access to training. For farmers in Uganda, we confirm that 4C verified farmers are more efficient financially. Productivity has not changed significantly, but efficiency of production as measured by the production cost per Mt green coffee, has. In Vietnam, an origin where productivity is extremely high, we did not observe additional increases in productivity as a result of being 4C verified. Of the changes in economic and agronomic performance that are observed, none correlates with application of GAP training.

On the social dimension we again see notable effects in Uganda, but less so in Vietnam. A clear link between being 4C verified and an increase in dietary quality was confirmed for Uganda. In Vietnam we only see differences in wages paid to workers, which show a stronger and significant increase over time among 4C verified farmers.

Farmers that are part of a 4C verified supply chain have more access to training. For farmers in Uganda, we confirm that 4C verified farmers are more efficient financially. Productivity has not changed significantly, but efficiency of production as measured by the production cost per Mt green coffee, has. In Vietnam, an origin where productivity is extremely high, we did not observe additional increases in productivity as a result of being 4C verified. Of the changes in economic and agronomic performance that are observed, none correlates with application of GAP training.

On the social dimension we again see notable effects in Uganda, but less so in Vietnam. A clear link between being 4C verified and an increase in dietary quality was confirmed for Uganda. In Vietnam we only see differences in wages paid to workers, which show a stronger and significant increase over time among 4C verified farmers.

Environmental performance is hardly affected by 4C. Only in Uganda did 4C verified farmers take significantly less new land into production for coffee. Other environmental aspects were not impacted in either country.